The Housing Crisis in America: Numbers and Impact

(A brief synopsis of the housing crisis afflicting tens of millions of Americans, and threatening to become even worse as governmental subsidies and constraints are removed. This is the problem identified; for one solution, see the post on EquiShare in the Economics section.)

The description of the current state of affordable housing in America as a “crisis” is in some ways problematic. The term suggests that the inability of tens of millions of U.S. households to pay for adequate housing has occurred as a response to a present day event; nothing could be further from the truth. The problem has been emerging, evolving in plain sight, for more than a generation. It is only now -- in the shadow of the pandemic and the resulting economic disruption -- that we are fully acknowledging its urgency. 

Simple numbers tell a complex story. The persistent rise in housing costs has captured attention, of course, but not in the necessary context of incomes that have risen only nominally. It is this -- the comparison of housing costs to earned income -- that is most relevant; had incomes risen in similar percentages, affordability might not be so difficult. A look at the 30 year period from 1985 to 2015 graphically illustrates the issue.

For the purposes of this example, let’s assume a 7.5% average interest rate for a mortgage. We’ll also assume 5% downpayment, well within parameters using an FHA program based mortgage. For affordability, we’ll use the 35% of income suggested as a sustainable maximum by HUD; for consistency, we’ll calculate all of the numbers in 2019 dollars.

• In 1985, the average household could afford a house costing $195,000, or over two and a half  times the median house cost. The vast majority of working households were well able to afford a good home in almost every market.

1985 Median Income: $   52,709

1985 Median Housing: $   82,800

• In 2000, the average household could afford a house costing $230,000. This was still above the median housing cost, but it became a challenge in higher value areas such as the coastal cities and urban areas. We begin to see significant cracks in housing security for families across the country.

2000 Median Income: $   62,512

2000 Median Housing: $ 172,900  

• In 2015, the average household could afford a house costing $225,000. This represented only 75% of the median house price; housing in urban areas and coastal cities became well beyond the capacity of working families to afford. 

2015 Median Income: $   60,987

2015 Median Housing: $ 302,500

In the present day, the median housing price in America has ballooned to $375,000 in 2021 dollars. Median household income (also unadjusted) is about $68,400, suggesting that the average household can afford a home costing approx. $250,000, or 67% of the median cost. In order to afford to buy a median priced home, the household income would need to be just over $100,000, a figure reached by only 34% of households. Figures relating to many urban and coastal areas are tangibly worse. 

Beyond just the exclusion of a major portion of Americans from the ability to own the property that they stand on, the impacts on the persistent cycles of poverty, the expanding homeless populations, the struggles of low and even middle income families to provide stability and security, all are demonstrable by-products of this growing disparity. 

That lack of affordable housing has had multiple impacts on the largest U.S. industry, and relates directly to the pervasive cycles of poverty that afflict 13.7% of Americans, about 45 million men, women and children of all races and ethnicities. As more and more households are precluded from home ownership, the demand for rental properties increases proportionately. The combination of increased demand and higher sale valuations has spiked rental prices in a similar fashion to purchase levels, extending the lack of rent affordability to all sectors of the real estate market. 

As households find that the funds needed for housing consume greater amounts of their income, compromises on other purchases, and stability regarding location and lifestyle are the first casualties. Estimates prior to the pandemic suggest that well over 40% of all renters are “rent-burdened”, meaning that they spend greater than 35% of their income on housing costs; almost half of those are “severely rent-burdened”, or find themselves using more than half their income for their living quarters.

Instability has a number of costs for households, and for the neighborhoods and communities that are afflicted. The average household stays approximately 8 years in a home that they own, versus just over 2 years (27 months) in a home that they rent. The effect of such rapid turnover on communities and on the households themselves is well documented.

The affordable housing crisis is urgent and everywhere, afflicting such disparate groups as those at the poverty line, low-to-moderate income households, essential workers and municipal employees, and well into the professional classes. Solutions born of government largesse are dead ends, inevitably meeting fatal obstruction as unprecedented national debts limit the ability (and will) of the political class to respond.

The implications of a systemic failure to address and at least partially resolve the resultant impacts are knowable and dire. In the absence of government capabilities, the solutions will come from the market itself, and demand that they are economically sustainable, beneficial to all of the stakeholders and executable within existing infrastructures.

EquiShare Homes, Inc. is one offered response, one that makes sense in all regards and can be provided quickly and efficiently in the current economies. For information on EquiShare Homes, Inc., please contact me either through comments here or directly at gary@equisharehomes.com. Thank you.

Why resignation might be inevitable... and why we might wish that he doesn't.

Oh, what a tangled web we weave...

For all of you who are in disbelief that Donald Trump would ever resign, consider the following (with the substantial caveat that I am not a lawyer):

Trump refuses to resign. The House goes forward with the impeachment, and the Senate -- now under Majority Leader Schumer -- initiates the impeachment proceedings. Trump is no longer President, and lacks standing to refuse a subpoena. His conversations, communications and aides are no longer covered by executive privilege, which as I understand cannot be conferred retroactively.

Trump is forced to take the stand, and testify under oath without the protection of an office. So are his aides, and other relevant persons -- family, Guiliani, etc. -- who cannot be sheltered by him any more.

Tell me... what questions might be asked? What discovery might be requested? What answers might lead to a string of Congressional investigations and prosecutions?

In order to avoid all of that, Trump has to thread a very fine needle. He needs to reach agreement with Pelosi that if he resigns, he will not be impeached. He needs to coordinate with Mike Pence, who reports note is fuming about the President's treatment of him, and the idea that Trump put him in harm's way. He is racing a clock that says if he delays resigning much more, the value to Pelosi (and tangentially, the benefits of executive power for Pence) are minimized by the day.

I believe that Pelosi and McConnell, neither of whom is an ally of Trump's today, know and understand all of this. McConnell noting that the impeachment would occur after the election, and therefore be governed by Democratic whims, removes the possibility of Republican protection from subpoena. The announcement today by Pelosi of the filing of the article of impeachment starts that clock ticking loudly in Trump's ear, and equally important, in the ears of those who would be exposed with him.

He may well be stupid enough, or stubborn enough, to fight this to the death and not resign. What I don't know now is whether his adversaries -- and the American public -- shouldn't wish that he does.

A Simple, Indisputable Truth... our Election and our Nation.

At the core of the confrontations -- both on Wednesday in the Capitol, and in recent weeks across every media -- is a simple, basic question: was the 2020 election fairly won, or "stolen" from Donald Trump? On this pivot rests the right and wrong of all that has occurred since, a watershed moment in American history.

If you believe that the election was fair, as stated by the various government agencies responsible -- "The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history" -- then the subsequent actions of the President and his allies are disingenuous, a repudiation of their oaths and potentially or likely criminal.

If you believe, as often stated by the President, that the reported results of a substantial Biden win are directly the result of conspiracies and fraud, turning a "landslide victory" into a reported loss, then there is a deep and abiding problem that is being reasonably objected to and disbelieved.

There is no middle ground, there is no maybe. There is a yes and a no, a true and a false, and the context of our angry winter, the understanding of our roiling and split nation, relies on understanding which is which.

Fortunately, the answer is both knowable and indisputable. The President and his allies knowingly, cynically, traitorously are fully aware that the election was fairly contested and accurately portrayed.

We know this for multiple reasons and by multiple facts. We know this by the pronouncements of virtually every institution our nation holds dear, and every logic that withstands scrutiny and challenge. We have known this all along, and continue to see confirmation daily.

And, we know this by the President's own words and actions, and the words and actions of those most loyal to him.

We, as a nation, rely on certain systems, institutions and agencies for information. To those entities we have given the power and resources to evaluate and report on the most critical aspects of our American values. They are bound by more than party, but by the governance of the Constitution and the precepts of our democracy.

What are those entities? Start with the ones tasked with knowing what is unspoken and obscure: our security infrastructure, from the FBI to the Justice Department and myriad other agencies. Those agencies have unanimously rejected the idea of fraudulent or conspiratorial impact on these elections, without objections from within their ranks.

Remember that the leadership of those institutions are Republican, and were placed in charge by the President, and partisan leanings are removed from consideration. Christopher Ray is the Director of the present, appointed by the President in 2017, following Andrew McCabe, also appointed by Trump. Jeffrey Rosen, the current AG, is the sixth person to hold that position in just four years, all chosen and vetted by Trump's administration. Surely, they have no reason to contradict the fervent wishes of the President, and yet... they have. The heads of his agencies responsible for overseeing the election, Republicans all, were emphatic in their rebuttal and equally unanimous. There have been exactly zero persons in position to know, with the tools to find out, who have agreed with the President's assertions... and not a single Democrat among them.

We trust the thousands of members of the State's election infrastructure, duty bound to provide the granular results. These, two, were unanimous -- they, and their governments, many of them long-standing Republicans, sent without disagreement a slate of electors based on the outcomes in their states, and attested frequently and when asked under oath to the veracity of their findings. This was not their choice, nor convenient -- many have been threatened, have seen their homes and families disrupted and necessarily secured, for having spoken a truth that they would have preferred was different.

Beyond these members of the governments, we have the judicial branch of our government, again largely and prominently Republican in personal origins and derivation of office. The campaign brought dozens upon dozens of suits before almost every level of the judiciary, from local and state to federal and the Supreme Court. In 62 cases where a verdict was sought and rendered, the results were similarly unanimous -- the petitions rejected, often with dismay or disapproving comment. The President stated early and often that he would trust the Supreme Court to defend his position, having recently appointed three of its members... and yet when the courts denied him, he refused to accept their verdict.

There are no institutions remaining, nothing that marks the United States of America as a nation, that has not repudiated the fraud and conspiracy allegations. The Congress and Senate have both rejected the claims, although shamefully not unanimously. The Vice President, the most loyal of acolytes, found his duty to the Constitution was greater than his willingness to follow the demands of his boss. The Majority Leader, who for four years rubber stamped virtually every demand of the President, stood and declared that the facts were obvious and indisputable.

Nothing that is America, nothing that we as a nation have given power and resources to in order to defend our interests and our democracy, nothing has bowed to the demands of Donald Trump.

Then, we have logic. Were there a massive, national conspiracy... were there a concerted attempt to defraud the system as has been insisted on by Trump and his allies, the coordination across many states involving many thousands of co-conspirators, many of whom campaigned for precisely the result that so dismayed the President would have been unprecedented and unimaginable. That a conspiracy of that dimension would have somehow escaped the notice of the President's intelligence community, somehow left no smoking gun or paper trace, is impossible.

Einstein once said, in reflecting on a God that was alien to his leanings, that the odds against there being no God, but of the universe being the product of randomness, were infinite. In the face of infinite odds against disbelief, he accepted that he must believe. Such is the situation here.

Finally, conclusively, there are the President's own words and actions, and similarly the words and actions of his allies. Trump states that he knows for a fact that there was a conspiracy, that there was fraud... and yet, the derivation of knowledge must be some form of evidence, some article beyond just faith. When Trump called the heads of the election in Georgia, he did not offer them proof, nor did he suggest that he had it. He asked them to find the proof, to find the evidence that he lacked. How can he have proof, yet be unable to produce it? How can he have knowledge, yet need to ask others to procure it? He cannot, and therefore he does not.

His allies demanded that the machines were somehow selectively dishonest, choosing to take away his votes while producing them for the rest of the ticket... and yet, when the paper trails were tallied against the mechanical results, there were no discrepancies. Did the machines also write out the ballots and print them falsely, then convince the random audit participants to lie about it? His allies protested publicly that the election results were based on fraud, but repeated stated when under oath the reverse, that they alleged no fraud, no conspiracy. There is no evidence provided not only of fraud, but under oath that they believed there was fraud... none. Not alleged to state courts, to federal courts, to the Supreme Court. There were allegations of technical mistakes by state bodies in their interpretation of arcane election laws, and that is it... and they lost 62-0 in even those arguments. Fraud? Conspiracy? No allegations, no claims, as a matter of fact a clear denunciation of that being an intention. Guiliani: "No, your honor, we are not alleging Fraud".

If the President was in possession of any document, any evidence of any part of his accusation, would he and all around him not been ballyhooing that information to every one of these institutions and courts? If there was any logical progression, would not the DOJ and FBI leaned into the investigations on his behalf?

We have all that we need to know. The argument by the Senators and Congressman on the President's behalf was that if so many people in our country believed the repeated shouts of the President and his media microphones, there must be guilt in the system somewhere. Their circular arguments were that because American's believed their President when he made declarative statements, then those statements must by their adoption be true.

There is a simple answer, one that would be unquestioned in any other time in this nation's history: the election was fairly wrought, and the President and his allies know and understand that fact. Given that essential truth, the actions of the President before and since November 3rd are the acts of a person intentionally and conspiratorially seeking to overthrow the will of the people, and to install himself illegitimately in the office that he was voted out of.

There is no definition of that reality that does not relate to treason and insurrection, that does not count Donald Trump as a man intent on attacking and overcoming our democracy. The actions of this past Wednesday, in that light, take on every dark dimension that we ascribe to foreign invaders and saboteurs.

May the institutions that he so blasphemously threatened, may the nation that he so cynically attacked, and may the history that is to be written have at him as he deserves, and consign him and his co-conspirators to what he has shown himself to be.

January 6, 2021 -- A Story of Flags and Deceit

There was much to be repulsed by in yesterday's assault on the Capital by a mob of Trump-inspired insurgents. There was the painful image of the government under siege by domestic political terrorists. There was the casual response by police and other forces, a stark juxtaposition to the same force's abusive behavior when introduced to far more peaceful black protestors in the same city. There was the gleeful destruction of AP news cameras and equipment, a sign of the all-too fascist vilification of the media by Trump and his allies.

And then, there were the flags.

Three pictures remain poignant and distressing, and yet all too critically evocative of what was behind and ahead. First, there was a giant American flag draped from the parapets of the Capital. The flag was a featured image of the various media, and it demonstrated a blasphemous deceit: that those assaulting the foundational government of this country considered themselves, called themselves, and were repeatedly called by Trump and his family, patriots. Only in the bizarro fantasy world created by this president could those attacking America for the gratification of a would be king believe that they were defending that which they were insurgent against, and there can be no tolerance for their usurping.

The second image reinforced the first -- a group of thugs mounted the side of the capital, and removed a trio of American flags from their poles, replacing them with Trump flags. A perfect symbol of a man who has abjectly placed his own grievances and desires above any consideration of the country's interests, the action bespoke the reality of the moment, and the true allegiance of the people who desecrated that giant American flag by it's misuse.

The third image, an all too familiar one in this administration's history, was the carrying of Confederate flags through the halls of Congress, in an on-the-nose reminder of the last time a group that falsely called itself Americans took up against the nation. The sight of the Confederate flag waving as a symbol of occupation in the Capital was chilling, and a statement of what the mob's sense of "Making America Great Again" referred to in actuality.

We are, have been, will be a nation that is moved by symbols and the meaning that we impart to them. The theft of the great American flag for criminal purposes, the placing of a flag of fealty in its place on the Capital, the desecration of the seat of the people's government by the vain waving of the colors of traitors to this country... together, those images spoke in ways that no journalist could match. They spoke to what was actually going on, what was intended to be the outcome, and what lied in the hearts of the mostly all-white acolytes of a defrocked and beaten demagogue.

Sometimes, even often, the truth of a moment is not told in the slogans or cries, not revealed by the positions, counter-positions and excuses, not even complicated at all. Sometimes, it's the chosen imagery and actions captured by cameras, and wordlessly shared with the world.

Our capital was assaulted by a riled up mob in support of a single man, not a country, not even an ideology, but a warped and twisted ego in a spasm of denial. Our nation was demeaned in the eyes of the world by an accumulation of deceit, manipulation and self interest masquerading as a leader, and manifest as a cult.

We have work to do to heal, not only in the hearts of our country, but in the confused minds of our critical allies and supporters around the world. We must now do the hard labor of redefining ourselves, of providing so many positive images, so much real evidence of the power of the true flag, that these painful visuals are demoted to footnotes, relegated to the anomalies of a brief and regretted error in our history. This is what yesterday has brought to us, and leaves us with like the strewn garbage after an irresponsible assemblage.

There are 12 days before we get to begin that journey. May we find the strength to avoid digging that particular hole any deeper before then.

A Cautionary Fable... (Political Poetry)

“The world is flat,” he said to all

“The rest are only saying lies

If I could find a mountain tall

I’d prove it to your very eyes”

.

And so his wish his people served

Led to a peak high in the clouds

From where he saw the world was curved

But called out to the waiting crowd

.

“How flat the world is from this mount!

How scientists have let you down

More times than even I can count;”

And cheering, they bestowed a crown.

.

Some from the people he now ruled

Climbed up the mount and shared his view

To curry favor, friends they fooled

And echoed every breath he drew

.

All this hurrah came in a day

When all the land that he did rule

Was suffering in most every way

From hunger harsh and illness cruel

.

Still, scientists a group did send

To mountain’s top, and saw the light

Illuminate horizon’s bend.

They came back down, now proven right.

.

He screamed, and to the group appealed

“They lie! They cheat! My eyes have seen

The flatness of the world revealed!

They want my great crown to demean.”

.

Most people saw, and walked away,

Convinced the world was as they knew

But others stood, held in his sway

And cursed the scientists anew.

.

He bellowed out for all to hear

“The problem is the mount’s too small

Lift me higher, and never fear

You’ll see it’s flat once and for all.”

.

Those who clung to his hem came

And raised him up another time

While others swore his every claim

Despite not having made the climb.

.

Once again, he screamed from high

“I see the edge, sharp as a knife”

And once again, science did spy

The arc of earth now come to life

.

His acolytes the crowd did whip

Ignoring what was plain and clear

As now he called for one fast ship

For others to the edge to steer.

.

“Money matters not” he argued loud

While many went without a meal

He called for more cash from his crowd

As minions echoed his appeal

.

A golden ship was quickly found

And to the north its crew set out

Circling the globe all way around

But still he stoked the crowds’ blind doubt

.

“They want for me to be to blame

They plot to use this for a coup

Defend my crown! Defy their claim!

Trust me, what I say is true...”

.

“A rocket ship to go on high

Is what I need to show me right”

So one was sent into the sky

In search of proof in darkest night.

.

When none was found, his anger grew

And still his people stood and cheered

They blamed the astronauts that flew

And their good names were quickly smeared

.

While all his efforts came to naught

And failed were the plans he’d laid

Deep in his castle, never caught

He counted all the coins he’d made

.

Having filled enough bags with the gold

Of his fans who had kept their trust

He sent out one more cry in bold

“Keep faith in me! Believe you must!”

.

The land he’d ruled lay in despair

The people broke, and sick or dead

From selfishness and lack of care...

He filled his trunk, and finally fled

.

Despite their coffers bare of stuff

Despite the proof before their eyes

His jesters carried on his bluff

And swore allegiance to his lies

.

This story has a moral clear

That those who care for just their own

And lack a soul by which to steer

Must never wear a people’s crown

.

When shown a legacy of lies

Of loss by other’s cash redeemed

Of selfish graft, a life unwise,

We must accept things are as seemed

.

We cannot give our faith or hand

To those who for themselves just fend.

With empty purse and country damned.

Will always that sad story end.

An Easy Pop Quiz for Patriots

This is a surprisingly simple time in politics. It is a time when it is not important who you vote for or why, just what you stand for and how. It is a time for simple accounting, for adding and subtracting rather than the complex gyrations of a calculus. It is time to declare whether each of us, regardless of division or designation, accepts a very simple statement as the foundation of everything else.

Yes or no: We are Americans… or we are not.

If we are Americans, then we support the Constitution as the governing document, rather than the temporal wishes of transient politicians.

If we are Americans, then we accept the rule of law as the arbiter of disputes, and where we find that changing times require revisions, we make those through the processes of our democracy.

If we are Americans, then we hold that designation of national pride and power to be above all other names, above party, above ideology, above selfish wants and wishes.

If we are Americans, then we see the challenges of leadership as a contest of ideas, a forge where our leanings and creations are tested by their resonance with the majority.

There is a simple test for those who consider the label “American” to have any meaning whatsoever; a very basic yes and no, with no room for any further answer.

When temporary holders of power declare themselves by their actions and statements to be beyond the Constitutional determination of its authority, they are not Americans.

When our elected leaders declare the rule of law and the determinations of the courts to be without effect, then they are not Americans.

When our national representatives declare that they are working for a party, or an ideology, or far worse, for their self interest, as opposed to serving the people, then they are not Americans.

When the standard bearers of our democracy choose to ignore the will of the majority, and operate their office as a personal privilege rather than a duty to honor, then they are not Americans.

Every person is entitled to believe as they choose, to reject facts or embrace fiction, to hold opinions that are not demonstrable or constructive to the nation. A belief is an internal construct, something that we have inside of us. When that belief, wielded by those in office, manifests itself in actions, then it becomes relevant to the entirety of America. When those actions contradict the true source of their authority -- our primary institutions, our laws and Constitution, our permissions to lead for a moment by the expressed will of our people -- then those in office choose to confront America, and declare themselves above its mandates, then they are not Americans.

They are traitors to the flag that they vowed allegiance to, and they are no longer worthy of the respect and protections of this still great nation. Such is the day we have; such are the people in office who not only act in defiance to our principles, but who refuse to acknowledge the actors as standing against our sovereignty.

This treasonous posture has gone far enough. If the stories are even partially true, if those in the White House are countenancing discussions of sedition and rebellion against the framework of our country, then they are demonstrably traitors, and need to be named out loud as such.

If the President is telling his acolytes that he intends not to recognize the findings of the courts, the rules of our Constitution, and the demonstrated will of the people, then not only the President, but every single one who hears him so declare and fails to hold him accountable are in violation of their oath to serve, and need to be removed and prosecuted.

This is not about party. This is not about any person of any kind. This is simple. We either are Americans, or we are not. It is time to make that choice, and stand behind it as millions have before us, as countless have died to preserve that title.

We are either Americans, or we are not, and it is well past time to decide that question, and to defend our answer before our flag and our nation.

Hard to Argue with Death -- Covid Mortality Confirmed

For a specific group of Covid deniers, a popular argument has been that total deaths in America are not higher than they were in the past, an assertion supported by a frequently shared tweet that purports to quote CDC statistics.

As noted here before, this tweet is absolutely false.

Final figures will take a while to compile, but the CDC is releasing what information that it has, and the real numbers are as terrible as we assumed. America will experience well over 3.2 million deaths, projecting an increase of more than 400,000 over last year, and the largest percentage increase since 1918, when fatalities from that pandemic combined with WWI.

Last year's mortality total was 2,854,838, an increase of about 16,000 over the year prior. Normal increases from year to year due to population expansion and aging have been moderating prior to this year, due to improvements in heart and cancer mortality... age specific deaths actually fell by 1% in 2019.

The real impact of the coronavirus is demonstrated in the measurement of life expectancy, set at 78.8 years in 2019. As a result of Covid, the life expectancy figure is expected to drop by 3 full years for 2020, reversing decades of progress.

The stated Covid fatalities are around 320,000 currently, although most experts consider that number understated, not overstated. There are a wide variety of outcomes for the remainder of the pandemic into summer 2021; the affects of the disease will continue unabated for many more months while the vaccine is delivered in sufficient quantities.

There is much that we do not know yet pertaining to the ultimate cost of this pandemic. One thing that we do know, that we can absolutely say is real, is that it has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans over a nine month period, and will likely kill hundreds of thousands more before we get it under control. Any arguments to the contrary are a willful ignorance of the truth.

What if Donald Trump Was A Quarterback?

Let me try it this way...

It's the Super Bowl, and you're the quarterback of the defending champion. For weeks, you've been guaranteeing a victory. You boast that the only way you'll lose is if the other team, or the referees, cheat and take the game away from you.

For the sake of this discussion, the other team isn't the Patriots.

You build up a big lead early, but the other team comes back strong, and late in the fourth quarter, they score a touchdown to take the lead. Time runs out.

You complain to the refs. The refs meet, agree that the play was good, and tell you that you lost.

You throw a challenge flag. You argue that the receiver didn't catch the ball. The refs send it up to the replay booth. They watch in super slow-motion, and decide that the play was good.

You throw another challenge flag. You argue that the defense had 13 players on the field. The refs shrug, send it back up. This time, the replay booth not only confirms that the play was good, but sends down a box of tissues and tells you to leave the field.

The press box begins to empty out, except for the home paper. They hang around, and declare that the result is being challenged, so stay tuned. Please stay tuned.

You wave to the stands, and call all of your fans down onto the field to protest with you. You insist that the refs are losers, and are cheating you out of your win, just as you predicted. You tell your fans that, if they just hang in there, the score will be changed and you'll win. The beer flows like water. You keep the money.

You insist that the league office will overturn the result. You point out that you nominated almost half of the league officers, and they will be in your corner. Some of the fans, especially that one guy with war paint running down his face, start screaming that they saw the cheating, and that the scoreboard was made in China, so it shouldn't be counted.

You keep saying, if the winning team wasn't cheating, why do they object to your protests? They should just let you exhaust all of your complaints before they say that they've won. The other team walks away, champagne soaked, and begins planning their parade.

Time passes. Your fans are partying hard on the field, telling each other that there's yet another official who is going to listen... but one by one, the guys that you sent to the league to complain quit and go home. The guy with the war paint keeps yelling, so you hire him and tell him to go complain for you. He punches one of the other fans who he had just said was with him, and goes for it.

Most of the press is now talking about why you won't accept that you lost. You're losing control of the story. You keep pointing out that you were way in front after three quarters, and since the other team scored all the points in the fourth, the game must have been rigged. You argue that any points scored in the fourth quarter must be disallowed.

The free agents are all signing with the champs, and the NFL is printing merchandise with the winning team's pictures and the title Super Bowl Champions.

The league office isn't saying a word, trying desperately to keep out of the mess. Weeks go by, and the grass on the field is turning into mud... but you're still not leaving, not acknowledging that you've lost the game. The press has moved on, and is reporting on the champion's draft picks. You pout, but remain resolute that you've won.

Your team keeps looking at the door, but it knows that it only got to the Super Bowl because of you, so they don't want to make you angry. Also, you had the front office cut the last dozen players who didn't call you the best quarterback ever, so there's that.

Your most die-hard fans, remembering that you had said that the only way that you could lose is if the other team, or the league itself, cheated, hang with you on the field.

You point out that the other team had never scored so many points before, so there must be something wrong. You argue that your ratings are better than theirs, so that should prove that you won. You refuse to speak to the reporters or answer their questions, because they are being rude to you. You only speak through social media, but even they are tagging your words with disclaimers.

You begin lobbying the scorekeepers, insisting that they report the official score with you as the winner, regardless of what their scorecards say. You send a limo to bring them to the field, so that they can be impressed. They come, they leave, no progress.

You say that you'll leave the field if, and only if, the league officials who you nominated tell you to leave. You keep your fans on the field with more beer, and keep taking their money. The stadium went dark weeks ago, but you've set up your own lights, just shining on you now... your fans are kept in the dark, so they keep telling each other that they've seen something, you keep telling them that they're right, and everyone else keeps pointing out that you're wrong... except for a couple of reporters from that hometown paper, who desperately want you to keep taking their calls.

The field maintenance crew is conferring with the stadium police over how to evict you. More and more from your own team are sliding out the door when nobody is watching, and a few -- the ones that had no-cut contracts -- are saying that you should accept the loss and move on, focus on the next Super Bowl. You mention to a few friends that you might want to do just that, but that you're ticked off... and they begin trashing the locker room just to make it harder for the champs to use it.

How will it end? Eventually, the field will be needed for new games. Eventually, all of the officials -- even those on your own team -- will have acknowledged that you've lost. The league rules are pretty clear, and the decisions are final... and the NFL is getting a little tired of being laughed at around the world. The guy with the war paint running down his face is getting ridiculed, but he seems not to notice... he just keeps screaming.

The grand stands are being erected for the parade right in front of you. The calendar is moving forward. How much longer do you stay on the field?

Truth and Lies

We speak inside our circles, to those who we know share our views and our interpretations of the world. We watch our channels, read our websites, and nod knowingly to our own truths. We carry forward as two distinct, unrelated and uncommunicative countries, living side by side without intersecting except in shouts from across drawn lines.

The election demonstrated the intransigence of the distances between us, as record numbers of partisans showed up on both sides, a display not so much of patriotism and civic duty, but of an angry intention to deny the other side a victory. 155 million of us voted against someone as much or more as we voted for someone else, and in keeping with the expression of a negative, neither side seems truly satisfied as the result appears to be a government as split as the country it governs.

And yet...

As much as there appears to be a balance, there is not. The tendency is to say that there are two sides, but there are not. There is truth, and there is lie... and what we are seeing cannot be rationalized with a false equivalency. It is not equal.

The President has waged a war against the institution of democracy, as represented by our votes. He laid a foundation for his argument over years of allegations, none proven, none intended to be proven, so that when the time came he could attempt to subvert that institution and make it moot. This is not subject to partisan argument, it is demonstrable. It is fact.

The President's lawyers have argued 32 times in front of courts of law, professing to be the defenders of the faith. 31 times the courts have found against them, with the sole victory a technicality about the spacing of observers. Those are the cases that they haven't withdrawn prior to hearing, the ones that they didn't recant. The angry assertions of massive fraud, of conspiracy, of malfeasance have never been supported by anything solid such as evidence, or proof, or even reasonable cause.

In point of fact, when asked by judges whether these lawyers are alleging fraud, or anything related to it, they have -- under oath and penalty of perjury -- stated clearly (as did Guiliani yesterday in Michigan) that no, sir, they are not alleging fraud or conspiracy. The teams of lawyers sent out by the President have all resigned when faced with prodding to make statements in court that they could not defend, leaving only the last straggling amateurish efforts to carry the fight.

There is no more substance to the allegations than there was a health care plan in the comically huge book tossed to a reporter by the press secretary, just another prop to defuse a legitimate question. The allegations of criminal conspiracy on a global scale, involving assorted countries and thousands of Republican and Democratic politicians, judges, officials and citizen volunteers are fantasy; if there was any substance to any of it, the President -- supported by his Justice Department, his FBI and CIA, and in fact the world community that desperately needs a solvent and functional democracy in America -- would have been able to produce what he needed to retain his position. The greatest intelligence sources in the world, the largest legal force on the planet, the full power and resources of the richest country in the world could not find any evidence to share, to use in defense of the President.

There is no equivalency. There is one side who is operating in truth, and the other in lies. There is no argument to be made any more, since the time for that argument has passed with humiliating consistency and result.

So, where does that leave us? The nation is in it's quadrennial period of vulnerability as one administration hands off to the next, a time when adversaries have tested us before. The pandemic -- that which was a hoax to vanish as the election ended, something ginned up only to harm the President's reelection chances -- is raging and tearing at the heart of the country, but the critical ability to supply aid to the people is being crippled by the White House's refusal to coordinate.

The Defense Department has lost much of its leadership to random firings. The leader of the cybersecurity division, perhaps the most critical element of that defense, has been ousted because he publicly disagreed with the President's lies. The Senate has gone home, the international community is holding its breath, and the President has been taking a mental health week or two, without commentary or action except with his putter.

There are two months until the new president and his administration will gain official status. Two months for our adversaries to consider our weakness, exploit our dysfunction. There are two months for the pandemic to impersonate the wild fires out west and destroy everything that it can reach.

The side that has the power to do something positive, to secure our windows and doors and pump water into the fires is absorbed in lies. The side that holds the truth is outside of power, outside of the buildings and institutions where our strength and security sits. It is two months before they switch positions, and we have to ask what those days will cost America.

We, the people, are not both right. There is a right and wrong, a yes and a no, a lie and a truth. It is not hard to find out what is the truth -- the lawyers have already testified to it, the judges have already rendered a verdict. All that is left is for everyone to open their eyes and see what is real, then to join voices in demanding a simple thing -- that the liars stop lying, and the government govern an America that is terribly, terribly vulnerable.

There are two months for America to survive. It is not the time for willful blindness. It is time for the truth.

The Desperate Clinging to Power… No Cost Too Great

When Donald Trump ran for President in 2015, it was widely understood that the primary objective was a massive marketing play, a chance to elevate his brand to new heights and parlay the effort into a new media power. Nobody, including Trump and his associates, believed that he would actually win. It wasn’t particularly clear that Trump himself wanted the job.

And yet, here we are.

A tumultuous four years later, Trump is running for re-election like a man possessed, pulling out every possible trick and risking the lives of everyone around him, as well as his own. There is a transparent desperation that permeates everything that he says and does, and almost every late night, all caps tweet. In preparation for this election, he has cleared the decks of anyone who might exert restraint, and with his rabid lap dog Barr, has thrown the nation into whatever division and turmoil he imagines might help his chances.

Despite it all, the polls are not kind. Joe Biden has held a stubborn and substantial lead throughout, one that has expanded recently to new heights. Recent indicators are that the Senate is seriously in play, and that the House will expand its Democratic control. Compared to his race against Hillary Clinton, Trump is well behind even those daunting deficits. Revelation after revelation, from Woodward’s painful tapes to a litany of former officials adding their own anecdotes, and recently the damning tax and debt reveals, push against any recapturing of momentum.

Against that background, Donald Trump pushed to leave the hospital early, and is pressing to resume his campaign. His belief in his ability to motivate his fervid base is as strong as it is reasonable, given their demonstrated and uncritical loyalty. As long as he has the machinery of the conservative media combined with the levers of government and a compliant Senate, it is impossible to count him out… and he is playing every card in the deck. He is running like a man possessed, and for a couple of years now has appeared incapable of thinking about anything else but reelection.

Many have sought the office and the power. Many have sacrificed too much of their values and their dignity at times, but none in our recollection (with the likely exception of Nixon) were as single-mindedly obsessed and exclusively focused as our current President. 

It could be the match of a decidedly egomaniacal personality to the ultimate audience. It could be an almost pathological fixation on avoiding the “loser” tag, and the accompanying self-analysis that inevitably follows. It could be that he enjoys the service at the White House. Or, it could be far more logical and dangerous.

With the Presidency comes a level of scrutiny unmatched anywhere in the world. The urgent investigations into what was previously a private life has been less than flattering, and it does not take much imagination to visualize the life that awaits Trump if he loses in November. Let’s remember that, along with moving back to Trump Towers comes the removal of executive immunity, and the forced separation from his bulldog Barr. A quick summary:

First and foremost, there are apparently about $420 million problems with his name on them, the personal obligations that are coming due in the next few years. Despite the Time’s expose, we have no understanding of who that money is owed to, and what else has been agreed to that wasn’t opened up in his taxes. As long as he is in office, there are limits to his vulnerability… but as a private citizen, those protections vanish. Does his complicated and shaky financial empire have the wherewithal to survive that impending crash? Unknown.

Then there are a number of court cases, both state and federal, that have been held in abeyance by his subservient Justice Department, with related limitations on discovery and access to records that will, again, go away post defeat. There are undoubtedly hundreds, if not thousands, of lawsuits that have been delayed in filing given the futility of suing a sitting president. There is a particularly fraught DNA request that has begged the obvious question: if a DNA sample would clear him of serious charges, why battle so hard to refuse to give it? In the days and weeks after he leaves office, the full weight of his accusers -- both public and private -- will come crashing down unforgivingly.

Then, there is the loss of control over the internal records of his time in power, turned over to a potentially vindictive Democratic authority that he has railed against and provoked since his first days in the Oval Office. Hundreds of civil servants, long restrained by the proven threats of retribution, would be freed and encouraged to step forward. Others, already punished for their blowing of whistles, would be given new microphones and supportive committees to emphasize what has been hinted at before. The rush of revelations would likely be torrential, and unpleasant for both Trump and those who did his bidding. 

Life post-presidency has an air of the apocalypse for Donald Trump, a personal hellscape of uncountable adversaries drooling at his newfound vulnerability, and a mass of governmental power eager to repay his oppressive and heavy hand in a fevered environment of victory. No matter how self-delusional critics consider Trump, all of this has to be obvious to him. It has to be growing in evidence and volume as the reckoning approaches. 

It has to make him desperate.

There lies the extreme danger of the moment. A desperate man, facing his own demons and then some, knowing that the only sanctuary that he has is in staying where he is, for as long as he can bar the door. A man with immense official power and a supporting team of sycophant allies, searching for more furniture to move behind the doors to keep the pitchforks and torches at bay. 

The nation must be prepared for that coming war, and the possibility of a terribly difficult siege. Logically, there is no reason for Trump to accept defeat knowing the personal costs; logically, he should take America down with him, kicking and screaming, before he accepts eviction. Given what he must see, what he must know, the quaint idea of a peaceful transfer of power has little attraction or purpose; Trump should, and given his lack of concern over history or national good will, exhaust every last means of preserving his position. 

There must be a sharing of that logic, and a preparation of the nation for what is to come. It can’t be couched in niceties, distracted by assurances to the contrary… America must look clearly at the motivations and threats sitting in the White House, and be prepared for the ugliness that is now inevitable. While there is still leverage to be applied in terms of reelections, the Senate has to understand how personally they will be held accountable for their part in the process, and the media -- not the most partisan, but the national and international -- has to take on this story and shine a clear light on what’s to come. 

We cannot be surprised by such a predictable outcome. We must be prepared, understanding the logic and level of concern that it is provoking, and guard ourselves and our nation from the coming efforts, whatever and wherever they are.

The hard days are coming, for Trump… and for America.

How Many Will Die This Time?

How many will die this time?

This is what our President has just tweeted, in part of his announcement about coming home: "... Feeling really good! Don't be afraid of Covid. Don't let it dominate your life. We have developed, under the Trump administration, some really great drugs and knowledge. I feel better than I did 20 years ago!"

The President of the United States of America just committed murder.

First of all, in an environment where we are losing 1,000 people a day to the disease, where we are still by most responsible accounts months away from any mass treatment, the President just went out and told people to stop being careful, that the virus is no big deal. In fact, getting it gave him back 20 years of his life!

The President, who has had a squadron of the best doctors in the country attending to his every minute, just mentioned the "really great" drugs that are available to absolutely nobody but him. By most accounts, he is the most medicated patient in America, having taken virtually every drug and cocktail in the works and showing promise on special exceptions and with intense support and scrutiny.

The President, who has directly caused the infections of countless people around him, including most of the people who work directly with him, and who knows how many more who are being told not to say anything, is advocating on behalf of the virus. How many will now toss their masks? How many will mock those who don't? How many will defiantly wander into illness or death, based on this President's selfish attempts at preserving his fleeting chances at reelection?

How many will die this time?

We won't know until we count the corpses, and measure the increases in national pain. We won't ever have a clear picture of what this latest bravado costs us, because this administration has no regard for transparency or safety of its charges. We won't be able to tell except by the most extreme cases, the body bags and unnecessary funerals across the country as his lemmings follow his call to the cliffs.

What can we believe? Would you trust that the President would stay in the hospital, will cover his face, will stay isolated for the required 14 days just to save those around him? Would you trust this President not to lie about his condition, not to force his doctors to do the same when his chief medical officer just admitted having done so? Would you bet your life on his word?

We already know the answers. We already know not to trust him, or those who owe their jobs to his whims. We already know what he will gladly do if he believes that it helps him, even a little bit. There is only one thing that we do not know right now, that we cannot tell at this fraught moment...

How many will die this time?

The VP Debate -- Kamala Harris and the Empty Podium

The coming debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence will take on a far more significant meaning that any VP debate in our lifetimes. Both candidates for President are in their mid 70's, and whichever wins will enter office as the oldest President in our history. The presidency is a difficult and exhausting job in the best of times; in the coming four years, it would likely test a pro athlete.

That said, I'm puzzled by what to expect from Mike Pence. For four years, I've had virtually no clue as to his personal opinions, his philosophies of leadership or his priorities. The vast majority of what I've heard from him is a bowing and scraping in the direction of Trump, a style that initiates every comment or speech with a statement of obedience and reverence. To envision him sitting in the chair that Trump occupies is impossible... it feels as if he would serve the country from a nearby lesser seat, leaving a rose on Trump's chair as a permanent tribute.

On the other side, Kamala Harris has a robust and separate identity from Biden, one forged in a meaningful way through her time in the Senate and before. Her facing off with Biden in the debates, and her lack of apology for that later, speak well of her independence and personal strengths. It also provides some direct evidence of her priorities and views.

The presidential election appears almost entirely as a referendum on Trump, and the direction that he's chosen for America. The lines are drawn fairly clearly, and represented by the dwindling number of voters who are undecided. The issue of vice president appears to be a reverse: the identification of your comfort level with Kamala Harris should a tragedy befall Biden, and a Mike Pence who is invisible and irrelevant. You could easily imagine Harris confronting Biden on a policy disagreement, and speaking her piece... can you imagine a similar confrontation between Pence and Trump, at least without suppressing a laugh?

Pence: "President Trump, with your permission, I have some thoughts on your policy decision on North Korea that..."

Trump: "Pence, your face is turning red. You ok?"

Pence: "My thanks for you noticing! It must be the reflection of the light beaming from your countenance. As I was saying, about North Korea..."

Trump: "North Korea loves me. I'm getting love letters every week."

Pence: "As you should, your eminence... but about the policy..."

Trump: "Thanks for the suggestion, Mike. Grab me a diet coke on your way out, won't you?"

Pence: "Of course, sir. Thank you for your time."

In American political history, there has never been a person occupying as high an office with as subservient a posture and irrelevance in leading as Pence.

The debate should be fascinating, an opportunity for Pence to represent himself for the first time in four years. Let's watch and see if he can pull that off, or if his answers are all pass throughs to his boss.

I'm betting that we hear more Trumps than I's, but we'll know tomorrow.

Karma

Karma.

Karma is defined as "destiny or fate, following as effect from cause."

As the President sits in a hospital room; as the secret service scrambles to keep enough healthy bodies in place; as Senator after Senator succumbs to the virus and isolates; as virtually all of the participants in the President's preparations for his debate and subsequent travels fall victim (Chris Christie being the latest); as his campaign grinds to a halt just a month short of pay dirt...

Karma.

The effect is the collapse of his warped kingdom just as it needs to be strong. The cause is arrogance and insensitivity, a lack of leadership that looks outward rather than in. The President made a calculation that his own selfish interests were best served by publicly denying the realities of the pandemic, a deceit that forced him to publicly adopt the dangerous practices that have created such damage, lest he be exposed. The revelations that he and his posse did not provide testing prior to their appearance, unmasked and proximate, mean that those not involved in his deceptions are also subject to infection.

The infected will continue to rise. Any closeness to this President is a specific cause of worry, and more often than not, of an illness that can kill. More names will emerge as the gestation period of the virus matures. The scenario being played out in D.C. is a summary of the same being experienced around the country, as the lack of seriousness in leadership has caused widespread conflict and suffering, as well as a horrible portion of the over 200,000 deaths.

The shame of Karma is the collateral damage, the innocent bystanders wounded by the shrapnel. The higher the point of the explosion, the wider the blast field... and Karma has ripped up President Trump at the highest point in America.

Karma is, as advertised, a bitch. Sadly, sadly, it is not being contained to they who courted its response. It has come for us all.

The Death Of Ruth Bader Ginsburg... Is There a Trojan Horse At The Gate?

What does the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg mean?

The sadness of her passing is a terrible blow for those many who cared for her, and obviously for her family and personal friends... but it is particularly of interest in the American political universe as well. With only a few weeks left before the election, there are ramifications across multiple aspects.

The assumption might be that McConnell, despite his moves to deny Obama his appointment, will move heaven and earth to appoint the fifth firm conservative to the Supreme Court, and that Trump will jump at the chance... but wait. It might be a trojan horse.

First of all, there is no assurance that McConnell will have the votes to do so. Romney is a likely no, but so is Murkowski from Alaska. With a 53-47 split, it is unlikely that Collins of Maine can vote for a new justice and survive her tough reelection campaign. IF Collins yielded to pressure and chose to vote a justice over the next weeks, then would that decision confirm the flip of the Senate to Democratic control next year?

Second, Trump has held up the election of the next justice as one of the motivations for his reelection... would giving up that obvious chip be worth risking the loss of the those voters who detest him, but detest more the idea of a democrat nominating her replacement?

Third, while the Republican Senators have been willing to accept the likely admonitions of history for their support of Trumpism, will all of the remaining 50 go this far, and be forever identified with a final betrayal by rushing through whatever is the first candidate for the highest court? As we saw with Kavenaugh, you can assume that the confirmation process will be contentious and emotional... will there be a willingness to simply force that issue in the midst of an election, and the risk of public disgust?

There are any number of rife outcomes here, all of them dynamic and evolving as we speak. Here's one:

The process of forcing through a fifth conservative justice in record time could well cost the Senate any chance of holding the majority in 2020, by confirming the rejection of Republican incumbents in close races. It could put the final nail in Trump's reelection chances, removing one of the compelling arguments for conservatives who otherwise have no use for him... between McConnell's efficiency in converting the judiciary and the placement of the Supreme Court in solid conservative hands, the intellectual arguments for putting up with Trump will be weakened or eliminated.

That is the Trojan Horse element here -- that, in forcing through a justice, the Republican's find themselves out of power for several years at least, facing a demographic shift in the country that will drive them to reconsider their positions, or remain disfavored for untold terms. Once in power, the Democrats will have opportunities to establish strong voter rights protections that will enshrine that the majority can be counted, and if they are able to establish statehood for D.C. and Puerto Rico, push the Republicans into a highly difficult position to retain power.

The options are high for a Pyrrhic victory, where the win in the Supreme Court is balanced by a long term loss in the other two branches.

And here's one more possibility... if McConnell believes the White House and Congress to be likely lost, he may well drive the confirmation as a last gasp effort, looking for that legacy. In so doing, it may both confirm the losses, and open the door for something that would have otherwise been unthinkable...

Watch for Schumer to make one move here: to quietly float the idea that, should the confirmation be pushed through, a Democratic Senate would next term vote to expand the Court from 9 to 11 or more, as has been done in previous circumstances, recasting the balance. He'll probably feel compelled to deny it publicly, but watch to see if his contacts in the media and think tanks take that mantle for him.

An amazing time in an unprecedented year... but not the clear outcome that it appears to be. Much to analyze, much to watch as the powers that be evaluate not only a seat, but the balance of power, with both potentially telling for a generation or more.

As Exhaustion Overcomes… The Slog Goes On

A Note To My Friends,

I really wanted to write a column about the President's blatant racism today. In his rants against the proposed expanded teachings in public schools about slavery, racial inequity and historic oppression, in his labeling of that overdue curricula as un-American and unpatriotic, Trump has once again dragged the office of the President into a lower gutter than we'd thought existed. In the shadows of his complicit AG's statements that protestors were treasonous, and subject to prosecution under the Sedition acts, any veneer of moderation or humanity is being systematically removed from the White House.

I really wanted to write about that, and more...

But the truth is this; I'm exhausted, and I can't get my fingers to type what's in my heart. This farce has gone on long enough to leave just one final act, and I feel that any energy not spent on getting myself and anyone that I can influence into a voting booth is wasted.

Everything else is over and done. Is there really anyone left in America who is on the fence, trying to determine what is best for America? If so, my feeble words won't matter.

Is there really any doubt about what's at stake in November? The President has systematically eliminated anyone from his administration with a spine or a shred of human decency, and entombed the White House with mumbling sycophants. He has installed unqualified and in one painful case, clearly mentally ill donors and apologists to replace career civil servants, and to twist the institutions into propaganda facilitators.

Today, Trump again blatantly lied about the pandemic and our failed and failing response, suggesting that masks were overrated and that his own scientists, constrained by the penalty of perjury and forced to publicly deny his lies, were themselves wrong. As a direct result, more American's will needlessly die, and the economy will continue to make giant sucking sounds as it slides into the muck of the pandemic.

There is nothing left to demonstrate, nothing left to prove. The President has wagered his ability to retain an office that he constantly degrades on a public appeal to the worst of our sensibilities, and to count on an uncritical and intentionally misled minority to carry the him to another term, and to accept his misstatements without challenge.

Here is what else we have today: the leaders of the CDC have stated under oath that the vaccine will not be readily available until next year. The companies making the drugs have publicly concurred. The people in charge of the drug tests have signed pledges not to rush the trials. The majority of Americans have stated that they will not take a vaccine that is rushed to market.

The President states categorically that the drugs will arrive by election day, and calls all of the other parties liars, hacks or, at best, confused.

I'm just about done with this all.

Let the foul deeds be done across America, in rabid attempts to deny the vote where they can. Apparently, nobody who supports Trump finds the effort to restrict voting a clue as to the desires of the electorate.

Let the foul words continue from the desperate clingers to their offices, unearned and incapable of rising to. Apparently, they understand what a fair and just world will do to them, and they are anxious to avoid that fate.

Let the day of decision arrive, and let me harbor the last vestige of trust and faith in justice, in fairness and in the American public.

Just let me stop ranting now, and until then... let me rest my heart, and sleep in faith. If Trump and Barr have stopped trying, then let me do the same.

What Price a Lie?

What price a lie, or more to the point, lies?

 In today's disclosures, taped conversations with President Trump reveal that from the very beginning, following his being briefed in late January, Trump intentionally misled the American public on the nature and dangers around the covid-19 virus.

Despite clearly understanding the transmission aspects (air-born) and the mortality threat (five times the flu) Trump repeatedly projected that the threat wasn't real, wasn't severe or wasn't understood. His current excuses fall along the lines of wanting to avoid panic on the part of the country, wanting to suppress costs around the world for PPE, and a desire to keep a "positive attitude" in front of the nation.

I cannot imagine that this is much solace to the 190,000 families that have lost one or more members to the virus, particularly those who are followers of the president, and based life and death decisions on his messages. I find it hard to reconcile the lack of urgency in the administration when, regardless of the public pronouncements, delayed specific and necessary actions until after the virus had widely spread.

It is particularly egregious to consider the elected officials from Congress through state and local offices who based their own choices on the perceptions provided from the ultimate source of information, and whose constituencies paid a deadly price for their errors.

This is not a partisan witch hunt, not a democratic hoax. In this case, we have the President’s own words in his own voice, recorded for posterity. We have full sentences, in context, declaring his history and intent to downplay the facts, and to communicate a story that he knew was false. It is not subject to debate or discussion, not able to be spun. It is what it is, to reuse a quote. 

For those who have sworn by the president, complaining about the media and the opposition party overstating the dangers, protesting the responses, what are your reactions? Does the idea that you were deceived intentionally give you pause, make you wonder how many other presidential assertions you blindly parroted without question were also lies? Having vehemently accused your local politicians of an exaggerated hoax, only to now discover that they were correct and your hero knew it, are you planning your heartfelt apology?

The president lied. He meant to lie, he executed and strongly defended his lie, and he incited millions of others to lie on his behalf, to act in a way that threatened thousands of lives every day. Those who disbelieved Trump are not the issue here -- they acted without concern for his pronouncements. It is those who were led by him, who followed his lead and spread his lies for him, that must now reckon with the evidence. The tapes are unquestioned for their veracity; the source of disclosure is the president himself. 

What now, followers, now that you know who you have given your unquestioned allegiance to? What now, Trumpers, now that 190,000 are already dead, and a virus that the rest of the industrial world has controlled is anything but in our country, will you do to try and rein it back in? What will you say when you confront your opposites in political thinking tomorrow, and they maintain their position against your candidate? 

Given time, the administration will create a mythology that excuses the inexcusable, just as they are doing with every other documented revelation. The press secretary already has made herself into a joke by insisting as fact that the president never downplayed the pandemic, even as Trump's voice plays in the background stating precisely that he did. Will you make a mockery of your own integrity as she did, on behalf of someone who consistently exposes his apologists to such ridicule?

At the very least, the price of a lie of these proportions should be the removal of trust, the ending of unsupported faith in his words and pronouncements. It should include the end of authority, and the instigation of doubt about anything else that he has asserted, present, past or future. It should include the removal of the mantle of leadership once and for all, and the rendering of the November contest essentially a foregone conclusion… but for all the times that we have assumed that in the past, there remains a lingering doubt. 

There should not be. When the price of a lie is death by the tens of thousands, there should be no further opportunity by the liar to hurt America.

Let’s see what happens now.

The Insufficiency of Reparations… The Case For A Better Way

Reparations for slavery is often defined as financial compensation to be paid to the descendants of slaves. If we accept reparations in that manner, I would contend that reparations are inappropriate, insufficient and dangerous.

Inappropriate, because it suggests that a check, regardless of the amount, is an adequate response to the enslavement and enduring abuse of an entire population of American citizens.  

It is not.

Insufficient, because the concept falsely implies that the damage done by centuries of endemic racism has been limited to slavery and its specific victims. 

It has not.

Dangerous, because it provides an excuse for white America to consider its obligation to the repair of what it has broken to be complete. 

It must not.

The arguments on behalf of reparations have been largely limited to the economics related to the forced labors of enslaved Africans in America. Scholars have gone to great lengths to compute equitable compensation for those labors, and to translate their calculations into present day currencies. Their formulations have led to a broad range of numbers, varying mechanisms for distributions and debates over what constitutes a descendant.

In this regard, reparations are a bandaid over a deeply infected wound. It solves none of the systemic problems or resulting deficits, while creating the appearance of a cure. It is a placebo that will lead to the disease metastasizing in the body of this nation. 

At the root of slavery was a specific conceit: that Black men and women were somehow less human than their white counterparts, not entitled to what were already understood by the founding fathers (and those before them) as the God-given rights of freedom and self-determination. The very act of enslavement, the predation of bondage, could not have existed without this fallacy being endorsed. It was this deceit that was the original sin; slavery was a grievous but almost inevitable derivative of that delusion. 

True reparations, if we redefine the term to mean making amends for past transgressions, requires a far more comprehensive and inclusive response. The average Black family has one-tenth the net worth of the average white family, a product of the forced absence of trans-generational wealth and historical denial of opportunity and stability. Systemic health disparities have been thrust into public awareness by the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic. Social justice inequalities have resulted in the incarceration of vast numbers of Black Americans, serving as a functional perpetuation of slavery in an altered form. Access to quality opportunities in education, employment and representation lag demonstrably behind those afforded white Americans. 

We must first accept that the result of that disbelief in a shared humanity has been the endemic plague of racism, a condition that did not begin with slavery, nor end with its abolition. The laws of this country, along with its societal constructs and extralegal perversions, have not asked for the origin stories of Black Americans, just the color of their skin in order to deprive them of their share of the nation’s protections and bounties. Therefore, true reparations must provide a present redress for generational deprivations.

Too many of the victims of systemic and legally sanctioned racism are beyond our ability to comfort. We cannot travel back in time and institute equality and humanity. What we have left to address are the present and future generations of Black Americans, fully one eighth of our country, who are constrained by the outcomes of those prejudices and impositions. If we seek true racial justice and equality, we must first replace and correct what endemic racism has taken away, and establish specific guardrails against future leanings to crawl back to that depravity.

We can understand and calculate the cost of the past to the present generations. The markers that remain are clear and painfully apparent. The disparities inherent in Black America include entrenched deficits in health, wealth and opportunity, among many others.  

There should be no difficulty in drawing a straight line from early slavery to the present systemic racism, and in informing a relevant and defined response. Adequate compensating cannot be accomplished by the present definition of reparations, as much as the simplicity and cleanliness of issuing a check would be a likely relief to white America; a financial resolution would serve as a present day form of the indulgences in the Catholic faith, where sinners were absolved of their acts by the payment of money to the church.  

True restitution requires the acceptance of responsibility, the will to make appropriate amends, and the political commitment to institutionalize the process.

There is a particular irony in the aversion to working towards equality among a shocking percentage of white Americans. In constraining the potential and productivity of fully an eighth of the country, this nation has traveled its singular path with one hand tied behind its back; no diner ever made money by denying a meal to a paying customer, no company ever profited by rejecting the best candidate to meet its needs. Righteous civil unrest forces this country to defend itself from an indefensible position. Racism has always been a crime that cripples its victims while diminishing its perpetrators.

A nation forging a path towards equality and justice is not a weaker country, but a stronger and more productive one. It is an America that approaches its best case scenario, one that can assert its global leadership and export its values without the corrosive burden of hypocrisy. It is a country that can present not merely a great but a good nation to the world, to its own citizenry and into the future. 

 America is perched on the precipice of an extraordinary collection of critical challenges, internal, external and in many ways existential. The response to those problems requires the accumulated dedication of every individual talent, every ounce of the nation’s energy and attention. It is only through the repudiation of racism and the resolution of its prior and present impacts that America can emerge as its best, its most prosperous and engaged.

Rhetoric and aspiration are insufficient for the coming moment; rather, we must embrace this growing awareness, and the exposed choice to actively create the nation that leads us into our tumultuous future…

 What we no longer can cling to is the pretense that where we go from this point forward is not a choice.

Please note: My new book on this topic “The Insufficiency of Reparations” is now available on Amazon and for Kindle.

Israel Normalization Agreement With UAE ( United Arab Emirates)

Let me get this straight… it has just been announced that Israel and the United Arab Emirates have signed an agreement to the normalization of diplomatic activities, the first between Israel and a Persian Gulf state, and the third — after Egypt and Jordan — between Israel and an Arab state.

This is good news, of course. Every step taken to tamp down tensions in the Middle East is a welcome development, and it is probably the case that the Trump administration gets proper kudos for their part. And yet…

First of all, the agreement is fairly irrelevant. Israel is a major world military power; according to the Global Firepower rankings, the UAE ranks somewhere between Malaysia and Bangladesh. There wasn’t much that was going to happen between the two countries, other than if the UAE was a small contributor to a much larger Arab contingent. The more likely scenario is that this will result in an increase in already ongoing trade and cultural exchanges, given the UAE’s great wealth, and Israel’s struggling economy.

That said, the larger issue is the question of why now, and why these two countries. It is not lost that the announcement of this normalization comes near the election and favors an administration that has virtually no positive results in four years regarding international affairs. It is also worth noting that Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, the ruler of Abu Dhabi and the de facto head of the UAE, has serious ties to Jared Kushner, and possibly financial ones. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are close allies, often coordinating in their policies and practices.

Israel and the UAE have long had a better than realized relationship. Israel has sold the UAE billions in U.S. air and weapon systems, a sign of some good trust, over many years. There are published reports of the two countries sharing security data, and the sale of significant spyware by Israel to the UAE. In Iran, the two countries have a common enemy, and each considers Iran a primary threat.

In return, the UAE (and their Saudi friends) have been among the most supportive Arab nations for Israel, within the limits of what they can do publicly. The two countries have exchanged some cultural issues (athletes, musicians, etc.) with some regularity.

So, there we have it. Two countries that have been pretty friendly for years agree to be a little more open about their relationship. America, through its deep ties with each (the U.S. also has a military base in the UAE), encourages them to formalize the bromance, without ruffling any other major feathers. The timing is somewhat suspicious, but the event is unremarkable and irrelevant to the greater need for a peace deal between Israel and Palestine.

Nothing big, but in today’s world, a better than usual Thursday afternoon, even if some political gaming was at the core.

The Dangers In Russia's Coronavirus Vaccine Claims

Russia Offers A Poison Apple... and Our President is Really, Really Hungry

Let me get this straight… Russia has announced that they have a vaccine for the Coronavirus and that they intend to begin vaccinating their first responders and health care professionals within a few weeks. There is very little that I can imagine more dangerous to America than this statement by the Russian government.

To a nation that is ripped apart by the competing pressures of economic devastation and an out of control pandemic, this is the mirage of clean water in a poisoned lake. The statement openly accepts that Russia has not tested its vaccine to anything close to responsible standards, and taunts America for being so cautious. It suggests that the salvation of our national crises is being withheld from our people because of some indecipherable governmental process.

It offers a desperate president a slender straw to grasp, knowing full well that he will not be able to resist. In his desperation to maintain his power, he has already demonstrated that he will compromise safety and common sense, that he will impulsively violate the dictates of his own agencies and professionals. It could only have been a better, more irresistible trap if they had claimed that the vaccine was Hydroxychloroquine.

It is critical to understand the reason for the extreme testing of drugs in our country, and indeed across most of the world. There is a long and painful history of damage done to broad populations by drugs that offered false promises, or worse caused symptoms as bad or worse than the illnesses that they addressed. The evolution of the process of qualifying a drug for mass distribution is not an arbitrary penalty to pharmaceutical companies, but rather is communal protection that has saved countless lives. To throw away those safeguards, to expose America in a matter of life and death, is to determine that political ambition is more important that a responsible exercise of authority.

It also won’t work.

The effectiveness of a vaccine is based on the adoption of that drug by the population. Even if it is effective, the impact that it will have on the spread of the virus — and accordingly, the timing of our return to some semblance of normality — is directly determined by the percentage of the population that takes it. Already, a third of the country has stated reservations or objections (in part, ironic response to Trump’s own proclivity for conspiracy theories); the premature release of a drug in the context of strenuous objections by the medical community will only increase that already dangerous percentage. The forced acceptance of a drug against individual will is conceptually possible, but would open the providing companies (and one assumes some level of authority) to ruinous lawsuits should there be some form of problem.

All of that is knowable. All of that is a simple process of deductive reasoning with available knowledge and understandings. All of that is easy.

Does anyone believe that will be enough to keep the President from overreacting and reaching for the poisoned apple? That this is Russia, and that Trump has such a bizarre and convoluted relationship with Putin, is there any reason to believe that we won’t see him argue for immediacy? When Russia announces that there have been no negative results without evidence to support it, and the world disbelieves Putin out of an abundance of experience, should we expect Trump to take the side of the scientists and our allies, or of the Russian leader?

We are not innocent anymore. We know this president, we see his panic and weakness, and we know that he will happily give up our lives for his political ambitions, never feeling a twinge. We know, and yet… let’s watch and see not only his first comments, often scripted and reviewed but his coming complaints about the slowness of the process and his desire for shortcuts.

Let’s watch and see what Putin has stirred up in Trump this time.

The Largely Inarguable Argument Against Donald Trump

With about three months remaining before our election, we are entering the period where any further significant policy decisions or declarations of intention are the by-products of polling adjustments and final course corrections. Fortunately -- and unlike when we were last presented with a choice --  we also have almost four years of actual governance to evaluate now, and the evidence has provided a clear referendum on the President. 

Trump Impeachment: Largely Inarguable Argument Against Donald Trump

The argument against Donald Trump leads me to a specific conclusion, one that is something less than a close call. Given the opportunity to lead the nation in both good times and bad, Donald Trump has failed on virtually every level other than two: his electing judges at the federal level and for the Supreme Court in keeping with his prescribed ideologies and his evisceration of federal regulations regarding business practices. In each of those areas, his actions have followed his promised path; agreement or disagreement with the choices is largely a matter of preference rather than competency, although I would argue (and do later) that there are some significant issues there as well.

In terms of domestic policies, foreign affairs, economic responses, leadership and advancing the nation forward, there is an almost complete failure by any arbitrary measures. 

This is an analysis of those five areas and my convictions regarding his performance in each. The values expressed areas they must be for each of us entering a voting booth -- both personal and consistent with values that I hold; my purpose in sharing is to make my analysis available to anyone for their own consideration. Like most of the country, I find that time has hardened my opinions rather than confused them; regardless of any other judgement of the President, one has to admit to his almost predictability in terms of responses and behaviours.

Domestic Policy Issues under the Trump Administration

There are usually any number of aspects to consider in domestic policy, from the advancement of signature initiatives to the efficacy of his responses to events and opportunities. My own priority of economic impacts is such that I separate those into their own category; this analysis is based on all other domestic issues.

At this moment, it is impossible to define any transformative or important domestic policies that carry Trump’s signature.

The preeminent domestic policies during his first term have been, and remain, the President’s response to the arrival of the pandemic. In meaningful ways, the administration’s efforts in this regard comfortably impact all five of the areas considered; I will attempt to limit my analysis to those aspects that I consider relevant as I process each.

Regarding domestic policies and the impacts of the virus, there is little to report. It has been the conscious decision of the administration to specifically refuse to create or employ any meaningful federal policies, more usually either pushing responsibilities to the states or to directly diminishing the effectiveness and efforts of his own agencies such as the CDC or FEMA. The sole initiative that can be traced to executive action is the massive funding and support for a medical science response, whether by the vaccine or therapeutic; that program initiated months too late, and while there have been some encouraging signs, those have come largely from the private sector, and in large part from European sources. 

Domestic Affairs and Policies

The abject failure of the administration to contain the damage of the pandemic is unequivocal; by every quantifiable measure, despite given the reigns of the nation with the most resources and technological capabilities on earth, America has suffered arguably the greatest negative impact. By every measure, from deaths and hospitalizations to the decimation of the economy and the education process to public disaffection and conflict, no major country other than perhaps Brazil has approached the ineptitude. Six months in, the nation continues to flounder without any evidence of actively controlling the course or mitigating its continuing damage, instead simply rolling with the devastating punches until it either run its course or is interrupted by medicine.  

Any arguments for the success of this administration regarding this issue are by definition specious and insincere. 

His efforts in the health care area have been primarily to remove the existing ACA program, the hasty eradication of which was a primary campaign promise. It remains the law of the land, and despite frequent promises, the administration has never provided an alternative for public consideration. As a result, the public acceptance of the ACA is considerably higher than it was after its inception; that popularity has forced his administration to adopt and promote several of its key aspects, most notably its novel coverage for pre-existing illnesses and support for extended coverage for children to older ages. Largely rebuffed by the courts, the actions and efforts of the administration have instead left the ACA maimed and bleeding but alive, a worst of all worlds where it has generated millions of uninsured without any constructive alternative or response. Four years after promising the act’s removal and replacement with a superior option, neither has occurred nor is even considered a priority any more.

Environmental Issues

The administration’s efforts concerning environmental issues are substantial; that is not to say positive or constructive. The administration has systematically stripped away existing regulations and alliances designed to respond to existing and expanding concerns and has diminished the EPA to a point of irrelevancy. Couched within a pro-business posture, America has regressed by decades in caring for the water, soil and air that are crucial to our continuing success as a country. The denial of the established science regarding the measurable realities of our planet has placed us as a pariah in global consideration and has deprived the country a critical seat at the decision-making table. The significant economic opportunities missed as a result are for later discussion.

The administration’s enmity towards immigration, both legal and illegal, has been constant while specifically ineffective, given their stated objective. The signature promise of a wall along the southern border has seen only marginal progress despite the allocation of billions of dollars; construction has been plagued by structural failures and disputes over land access. The promise of forcing Mexico to fund its construction has become a punchline due to its complete repudiation. Illegal crossings declined significantly during the Obama administration, but have stabilized or slightly increased during the Trump administration. Deportations also were far greater during the prior administration despite significant increases in budgeting for the agencies involved. Most notably, harsh and likely illegal treatment of families and children at the border have subjected the country to domestic and international condemnation, and deservedly so.

My personal opinions on the matter of health care, the environment and immigration run counter to those of the President, so each of these areas are disqualifying for me without consideration of the incompetence in execution of the administration's goals. I note the failures of those policies to point to the fact that even where the President is clear on his objectives, he is unable to achieve his goals. It is worth noting that even his success in filling out the federal judiciary has been marred not by the ideological bent of the candidates, but by their demonstrated incompetency and inappropriateness; witnessing the procession of nominees who have been declared unfit for the positions by the American Bar Association is a poignant reminder of the man who suggested them to the Senate.

Foreign Policy and National Security

Other than economics, there are four areas of foreign affairs that concern me most: our response to events, our approach to our adversaries, our relationship with our allies and our global standing. 

Other than the pandemic, the administration has been fortunate to have relatively few significant events globally, and the ones that have occurred -- Syria, Iran, specific provocations in China, North Korea and Afghanistan -- have been limited in scope. There have been a few concerns -- the decision to withdraw from the support of the Kurds, and the abdication of pressure in Syria to Russia, the reluctance to engage China in terms of their human rights issues -- but they pale in contrast to domestic and economic concerns, which was the intention of the administration’s isolationist preferences. 

It is in our approach to our adversaries that the gravest concerns are present, and in none of the major theatres has America made progress. Rather, there is a demonstrable regression in each of the four primary adversarial relationships: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. On a tier slightly below those, our miscalculations and failings in the Middle East suggest that those areas are equally negative.

The relationship with China, our primary global competitor economically and growing influence in areas that we care about, is at a particularly tenuous point. The closing of significant embassies may not appear to be critical, but historically that is clear evidence of disrupted (or worse) chains of communication and a sign of elevated tensions. We have an open dispute with China relating to several issues, from the Coronavirus to specific corporations and trade issues, and are currently still engaged in a trade war, one which has not benefited America. Trump consistently miscasts the expenses associated with tariffs as a form of national income; of course, that is untrue as tariffs are paid by the country receiving the products, not sending them. As a result, the trade deficit with China -- a specific objective of the administration -- has risen in each of the two years before 2020; the impact of the pandemic will make the current year totals fairly random.

Foreign Affairs

To the degree that we are seeking to mute China’s advancing influence in world affairs, the last three years have represented a sharp decline in our capacity to do so. Our withdrawal from international agreements in trade, environmental concerns and military practices have provided unfortunate opportunities for China to expand its economic, military and political influence with allies and adversaries alike, and has tangibly reduced our ability to advance our own interests. Regardless of the belief in the efficacy of those agreements, the inability to replace them with something superior has created that vacuum that China has happily exploited. 

The outcome of our reduced footprint has included increased adventurism by China in its surrounding areas, opening potential challenges to our relationships with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Relationship with Russia

The relationship with Russia is equally concerning and negative to American interests. Russian influence in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and important areas such as the Philippines and Turkey has grown substantially in a particularly short period of time; imbalances that might usually take a decade or more to evolve have occurred virtually overnight, raising legitimate concerns about our ability to restrain expansionist inclinations militarily or politically. 

Russia has used the internal issues of America, as well as our weakened geopolitical standing, for internal propaganda and political benefits; one result has been Putin’s consolidation of power both presently and in the future. Lack of response or active deterrence to their international interference and agitation in the politics of America and our allies has given their apparatus a sheen of impunity. Our administration’s often confounding deference to Russia has created visible fissures within our own intelligence community and diplomatic corps, and a difficult calculus for our allies to comprehend or react to. In no sense has America’s relationship with Russia and its leaders advanced the interests of the nation.

Nuclear Ambitions of Iran and North Korea

As the Trump administration entered into power, it stated clearly that the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea were primary points of focus. Specific statements of denial for each country’s proliferation were accompanied by promises of a quick turnaround, and in keeping with those expectations, Trump withdrew from the Iran disarmament agreement and established unprecedented engagements with the North Korean leadership. Both of those initiatives were met with dismay by virtually all of our global allies, as well as concerns from our standing professionals in the area, but the administration moved resolutely in its chosen direction. 

North Korea Nuclear Weapons Threat

As the first term expires, both countries are presently somewhat unchecked in their path towards nuclear arms. Our European allies attempted to stem Iran’s progress without our cooperation with limited success; Iran currently has stated its intention to expand its capabilities without a tangible response from the U.S., although there is a possibility that recent actions taken against that program may have been in part supported through a third party, likely Israel.

North Korea, having extracted specific concessions from the Trump administration without reciprocation, has resumed most of its efforts and is tangibly ahead of where it was when those negotiations began. The only significant outcome of the administration's policies has been the provision of status for Kim Jung-un through our engagement that has been a stated objective for generations of leadership there, and an opportunity for their progression without penalty. 

Involvement in the Middle East

Our involvement in the Middle East has been erratic and weak, with substantial regression in the situation in Syria (where we have accepted the Assad regime’s control and atrocities) and in the Israeli - Palestinian situation, where our bungled efforts to suggest an outcome have resulted in Israeli expansion that may have precluded future administrations from even seeking a two-state solution, without presenting a possible alternative. 

The administration came into power asserting a retreat from global influence and involvement and has achieved those objectives. Unfortunately, the path is chosen and executed resulted in a specific and dangerous national weakness, one that is being exploited by more competent actors who lack our national interest. The world is tangibly more dangerous and adversarial today, with no apparent positives to offset the losses.

Trump’s Engagement with Global Threats

In contrast to Trump’s passive engagement with global threats, his treatment of our allies and the resultant loss of influence in their policies has been aggressively negative. Historical alliances are frayed beyond recognition, resulting in specific opportunities for incursion by adversarial governments. Our continued animosity towards international cooperation has had impacts in our trade and political opportunities and has deprived us of the collective power that our previous leadership had provided us. 

Ultimately, an isolationist policy in a globally integrated world is of questionable value when well executed and skillfully delineated; poorly advanced, it creates negatives without accordant positives. Such is where America finds itself today -- reduced in stature and influence, diminished in security and power, and benefitting nothing. We are a painfully smaller country than we were just a few years ago, with our standing in the global community compromised, and our capacity to conform to world events to our preference and best interests degraded. The path back to that previous position is now unclear, having permitted adversarial interests to expand and collegial ones to lapse. 

Trump administration on economic affairs and government regulations

There is little to discuss here, other than the obvious: the policies and decisions of this administration have resulted in the worst economic disaster since at least the Great Recession, and likely since the Great Depression. Factually, there is evidence that the damage done is unprecedented, specifically in terms of the decline in the GDP, and in the dramatic rise in national debt. 

The knee jerk reaction is to state that the proximate cause of the economic catastrophe is the pandemic, and obviously that was the event that triggered the downturn, but we first have to acknowledge the failure of policies before the “good times” ended. Despite the construct driven by administration pronouncements, the economy prior to the virus was a direct byproduct of the artificial stimulus rather than expanded production, and the results gained by gaming the system were unimpressive at best, and problematic at worst.

Economic Responses

The big bang following the election was a massive tax cut, one that predominantly supported corporate interests and high wealth individuals. The objective for any policy such as that is fairly limited: that such largesse will provide such a substantial stimulus to the economy that the increase in revenues from growth will offset the lower receipts from the taxpaying public. In every event, it is assumed to be accompanied by reductions in government expenses, and a movement of functionality from the private to the public sector. Unfortunately, there was no such dividend from the tax cut, as general economic measures continued essentially on their prior trajectory, and deficits expanded to record levels relating to a period of growth. 

Unemployment continued to improve as it had for the prior eight years, essentially indistinguishable from its previous trend. Similarly, the stock markets -- a questionable evaluation tool for national economic progress -- rose at percentages familiar to their prior periods. Remarkably, after exchanging every environmental control for pro-business policies; following the tax cuts handing hundreds of billions to corporate interests; with the opening of lands and markets for exploration and participation; the Trump administration was unable to move the needle past where it had already been moving for the seven or eight years prior in any meaningful way.

Then came the challenge of the pandemic, and the collapse of the economy.

Most Dangerous Effects to Economy

The reaction to the introduction of the parameters of dealing with the pandemic has been erratic, contradictory, thoughtless and chronically late. The lack of a coherent response and federal leadership caused the most dangerous effects to any economy: unpredictability and inconsistency. A strong economy can overcome bad policies as long as it has a clear vision of what to compensate for, but the administration’s halting, uneven pronouncements and attempts at encouragement were the textbook recipe for economic sabotage. 

As the epic collapse began, the administration panicked further, attempting to salvage what it could not provide strategically with infinite funding. The final tally for the incompetent response will include a national debt that may not be serviceable, and a distortion of the markets that may be unrecoverable. Among the highlights covered previously is the breaking down of the walls between fiscal and monetary policy; the moral hazard of Treasury pronouncements that the deficits are irrelevant so long as the Federal Reserve manipulates interest rates to zero; the statement by the Fed chairman Powell that there are literally no limits to how many dollars he can provide by virtue of physical and digital presses; the congressional largesse that has been provided through hastily thrown together initiatives notable for their inefficiencies; and the creation of a marketplace and market that is highly dependent on continuing subsidies. 

The stock market has been inflated by the provision of free capital in the trillions, keeping its appearance while dislodging it from any connection to the actual economy. Unemployment has reached levels unseen since the ’30s, while the national debt is likely to increase by over $10 trillion dollars, a number that is as difficult to imagine as it is to recover from. Despite our active manipulation, the ongoing decline of the dollar against other currencies is a direct result of the international awareness of our profligate spending, and there is little to suggest that the economic challenges will resolve in the coming months.  

The gross malpractice of this administration in the areas of economic stewardship will resonate for generations, and the impact on American progress and stability will require sacrifices and missed opportunities for just as long. Precedents set in the past year suggest a future of irresponsibility and rationalization, with unknown repercussions from the violations of norms that have existed for well over a century. Any economic crises in the coming years will find that there is nothing left for a response, exposing America to the vagaries of an uncertain world without shield or armour. 

It is not an overstatement to point to the transgressions of this administration as the potential inception of a diminished America, one whose recovery will require generations of forced austerity and social decisions that run afoul of foundational beliefs. Avoidance of that outcome will require skills and disciplines already proven abjectly absence from this administration.

Leadership

Within classic definitions of leadership are a broad collection of generalizations, the bottom line in most of the valid ones is this: in a time of challenge and crisis, does the leader create a unified response behind the best option forward? There is little to discuss here; President Trump has failed every possible test or definition of a leader, and in his divisiveness, the abdication of responsibility, conflicting pronouncements, petty arguments and general rejection of collaborative governance he has demonstrably abandoned the country that he was elected to lead. Despite his obvious interest in consolidating his authority, Trump has been a failed leader and shows a degenerating ability to address or recover from that failure.

His inability to place confirmed parties in critical positions despite an obsequious Senate has been coupled with his stated desire to keep those professional offices held by sycophants who merely echo his pronouncements; his description of the Attorney General and the Justice Department as being prioritized to support his whims, rather than to enforce the dictates of the Constitution, in unprecedented and, having found a co-conspirator in Barr, impossibly dangerous to the rule of law. His demonstrated disrespect for military leadership, and their critical responses to close exposure to his presidency, along with his inclination to see the military professionals as a personal service to his whims, has created a distancing between the civilian and military leaderships that threatens effectiveness should there be a real need for engagement. 

The national unrest in areas of racial injustice and local authority are instructive as to the lack of skills in leadership. The flashpoint - a brutal killing of an unarmed black man by a police officer in broad daylight -- was consistent with recent tragedies relating to racial predation, and in an environment where minorities were deeply and disproportionately impacted by the pandemic and attendant economic collapse, entirely predictable. Unable to respond to the moment constructively, Trump retreated to promoting division and inflaming the circumstances over a period of months, exacerbating tensions and dividing his country. His actions have compromised the military to the point where they have spoken out in contravention to their usual behaviour; they have spawned controversy and national passions in ways and over arguments that weren’t present at the inception. In every way, his failure of leadership was evident throughout and remains a force for national trauma.

Democratic Government

Trump’s attempts at forging an autocratic position out of a democratic government would have been far more dangerous and worthy of revolution had he not been so incompetent at doing so. Trump has used tools designed for exceptional circumstances as primary tools of solitary governance, executing a record number of executive orders and resorting to constant court filings for issues that would conventionally be the product of compromise. In spite of having processed a record number of justices at the federal level, and two Supreme Court Justices, his administration’s record in those court appearances is particularly bad, an indication of how far he’s sought to push convention. 

Trump has operated his administration as a bad CEO of a failing company, besieged by constant and historic turnover and rejection of qualified applicants to participate in his offices. As the third President to be impeached, his relationship with the other governing party has been astonishingly void of effort or civility; he presides over the most leaderless America in over a century, and potentially since our founding.

Advancing the Nation Forward

Over forty years ago, Ronald Reagan asked America if it believed that it was better off than it was four years prior. The answer was resounding no, resulting in his becoming the 40th President of the United States. 

The same question, asked today, would be responded to with some laughter. The nation is embroiled in an epidemic that is, by several measures, still expanding some six months after its arrival. The economy has collapsed, with historic levels of unemployment and business failures. The institutions of the nation are under attack or compromised, from education to law enforcement, from media to all organs of government. A protracted protest against racial inequality and systemic racism has expanded from across the country to across the world and continues against a backdrop of an adversarial and deliberately provocative president.

America’s global standing, from political to the military to economic to scientific, has cratered in ways unimaginable a few years ago. We are a nation in disarray, divided and exhausted, unprepared for the present and unsure of the future. 

In light of these realities, it is somewhat astonishing that the President who has presided over the devolution of the country in four short years is asking for another four years. For his scandal-ridden administration, there is not even the suggestion of an agenda for resolving the crises, for restoring America’s solvency and well being, let alone its national pride… there is merely the request for continued authority for the sake of that position alone. 

There is nothing meaningful to debate, nothing of substance to balance the case. It is quite simply past time for Donald Trump to go, and to leave the country that he has so badly wounded alone to heal itself. 

It is the adding of insult to injury to even consider any alternative to that outcome in November.